Pakistan’s February 2025 Inflation Estimated at 2-2.5%

Pakistan’s February 2025 Inflation Estimated at 2-2.5%

In February 2025, Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to be around 2.0-2.5 percent year-on-year (YoY) and stable on a month-on-month (MoM) basis. The average inflation rate for the first eight months of FY25 is estimated to be 6.07 percent, significantly lower than the 27.96 percent recorded for the same period in FY24.

Food inflation is expected to drop by 0.4 percent MoM, mainly due to substantial decreases in the prices of tomatoes (55 percent), onions (27 percent), and potatoes (21 percent). However, prices of fresh fruits and sugar are anticipated to rise by 9-15 percent.

The housing, water, electricity, and gas segment is predicted to see a 0.2 percent MoM decline, driven by an 8 percent drop in LPG prices and a 0.5 percent reduction in electricity prices. This is attributed to a higher negative fuel cost adjustment (FCA).

On the other hand, the transport segment is expected to experience a 1.2 percent MoM increase due to the rising prices of petrol and diesel by 2-4 percent.

For FY25, the average inflation forecast remains at 6.0-7.0 percent. However, any significant changes in commodity prices, such as oil at $75 per barrel, could lead to adjustments in these inflation estimates.

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