According to Eric Martin-Neuville, Executive Vice President of Geodis, cross-border e-commerce has shown remarkable performance in the air cargo market in 2024, particularly in China's exports, absorbing capacity for Europe and the U.S.

The overall market in 2024 has produced decent growth in general cargo, complemented by a heavy surge in e-commerce business driven by new Chinese market entrants. This has led to global growth of approximately 10%, significantly above various forecasts. Capacity has continued to grow to accommodate the e-commerce flows, resulting in firm prices that have stabilized at a rather high level.

E-commerce is traditionally a high-volume/low-value type business, reflected in the relatively low rates and does not require a lot of added-value services on top of the airport-to-airport carriage. While this remains the case, like any other verticals, e-commerce is impacted positively or negatively by market conditions, and what is noteworthy is that the segment does make long-term commitments with regard to volume and capacity .

The imbalance in trade that e-commerce has largely brought about on major air cargo routes—load factors out of Asia being extremely high and into Asia much lower than usual—poses a challenge for forwarders. The large number of dedicated e-commerce flights are creating a significant surge in backhaul capacity, putting pressure on the market and on pricing .

Other major verticals for air cargo, such as hi-tech and pharma, are performing well, while traditional fashion retail has seen tonnage drop and favored ocean freight to air under economic pressures. Luxury goods, especially into China/APAC, have seen a drop in demand, resulting in some modal shift to cheaper and lower-carbon ocean alternatives .

Comparing current volumes, revenue, and rate levels with pre-pandemic 2019, excluding the low-value cross-border e-commerce business, demand remains below 2019 by close to 4%. However, the overall tonnage carried, including e-commerce, is greater than it was in 2019 by 5% . To cater to this growth, capacity has increased by close to 7%, but prices remain higher than 2019 due to fuel costs and general inflation.